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In-depth interpretation of the current situation of domestic
2019-08-30
作者：admin
1, the days are hard
Twenty-three years ago, the wine of the dynasty, the scenery is infinite. In the summer of 1996, the general manager of Dynasty Wine went to Shanghai to attend the "Red Dynasty Plus Sprite - Sichuan North Road Haipai Drink festival".
At that time, Shanghai, "drink ingress dynasty" became a popular trend. Shanghai foreign affairs activities, some city leaders in order to improve taste, will be dry red drinks.
When The Hongkou District of Shanghai wants to "festival the city", it wants to use this as the theme. At the beginning, the activity is called "Red Brother plus White Sister", red is the dynasty, white is Sprite.
However, The Boss of Sprite Bottas in Taiwan thought white was unlucky, so he changed its name to "Red Dynasty Plus Sprite". Dynasty didn't like the idea. Remove the sugar "dry red", but mixed with sweet drinks, not classy.
But eager to open the dry red market, Dynasty did not give up this promotion opportunity.
The event was a great success, "red wine to Sprite" popular, dynastic business is booming, the market share once exceeded 50%.
In 2018, the dry red of the dynasty is mixed with sweetness, but this time, it has become even worse.
In November last year, the product was found to be banned, casting a shadow over the internal diplomatically troubled dynasty.
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There are more than 3300 Hong Kong stocks, more than 5 years of suspension of nine, a dynasty occupied a seat. The dynasty has been suspended from March 2013 on reports of fictitious sales and the disappearance of inventory.
If the re-branding is not returned by August 1 this year, the dynasty will be delisted.
In July last year, Dynasty sold 170,000 square meters of land, along with wine castles and wine hooks, like a seller.
Once with Zhang Yu, the Great Wall, and said the "troika" of the dynasty, the location has been replaced by Willon.
But not only the dynasty, the whole domestic wine industry, life is not good. Last year's mid-year report data showed that Zhang Yu with revenue of 2.8 billion yuan to sit in the industry's leader, accounting for nearly 3/4 of the total revenue of listed companies in the industry.
But in 2011-2017, Mr Zhang's profits fell by nearly half. The Great Wall is not going well either.
In October 2017, it was even divested from the listed company by China Foods, which is part of Cofco.
China's wine production plunged by a record 37% year-on-year in 2018, less than half the year before 2012, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. In July 2012, the INDEX of liquor in China securities exceeded 4000 points. Since then, after a long adjustment, at one point fell to less than a thousand points.
Today, the index has risen to around 6,000.
The wine industry, which has been sinking at the same time, has never been revived. Even Zhang Yu, the leading stock, is trading at less than a quarter of its 2010 high.
During the same period, Guizhou Maotai's share price has doubled fivefold and has recently returned to trillion-dollar market value.
2, the Golden Age and Hidden Worries
Wine is imported, but the wine mixed with sweet, but it is "Chinese characteristics."
Modern wineries established before liberation, producing two types of products:
"Full juice" made entirely of grapes, as well as high acidity mountain grapes as raw materials, must be added with sugar mixed with water to make the delicious "full juice." In 1949, Tonghua wine and Maotai together became the special wine of the founding ceremony, sweet, semi-sweet wine defined the Chinese wine taste.
"Half-juice" wine and three fine one water hook, occupied the Chinese table for many years. In 1980, the Sino-French joint venture dynastic company was established, China's first full-juice dry wine "Dynasty semi-dry white" was born.
As the wine market grows, it is imperative to set rules.
In 1984, the Ministry of Wine standard, the content of grape juice to 30%-70%, the existence of semi-juice is reasonable and legal, five years later semi-juice wine still accounted for more than 80% of the market. Due to the need to export foreign exchange, by 1994, China promulgated the international standard of wine. But in the same year, there was a relocation of the production status quo of the line, half-juice wine again "continued life."
It was nearly a decade before the bid was abolished. By 2008, "wine is based on fresh grapes or grape juice" was clearly written into the national standard.
At this point, Chinese wine is completetoinwith with the world.
At the same time, Chinese wine consumption is increasing, and between 2002 and 2012, wine production has nearly quadrupled.
But it's not just the standards are confusing, there are other drawbacks in the industry. Unlike foreign wineries, China's land is scattered among farmers, manufacturers to farmers to buy raw materials.
But the tree age of grape vines with high-quality fruit is 30-50 years old, which is too long for farmers.
As a result, many domestic wine raw materials from 3-5 years of grape vine, quality can be imagined.
False-label years are common because the new standards do not have a test ingress of years or origin.
And fake wine rampant, but also triggered a crisis of integrity.
In 2002, fake wine triggered a large area of Tonghua wine enterprises shut down and rectification, in 2007, the civil rights wine industry fraud rampant exposure, local wine enterprises almost completely destroyed, more than ten years of grape vines were pulled out;
In terms of brand and sales, domestic wine is also a mess.
Many large enterprises more than a thousand products, and dealers, low-cost illegal online sales, unauthorized packaging and other conditions emerge endlessly.
From the year of the false mark, to the same kind of wine with different packaging, selling different prices, from the end-of-the-box restaurant buy-out, bribery marketing high opening fees, to the use of imported wine to pretend to be domestic wine, and even the use of consumers do not understand foreign language, the ordinary goods sold at high prices to obtain windfall profits ...
Hurt the trust of consumers, for the entire industry continueto "buried the mine." In the 2002-2012 Golden Decade, Zhang Yu's annual sales growth was more than 20%, sometimes more than 30%.
And the dynasty wine sales, also reached its peak in 2010.
But behind the prosperity, internal and external worries.
3, open a bottle of 82-year-old Lafite In 1982, Bordeaux, France, hot and rainy, very suitable for grape growth, the harvest quality of the year is very high.
Half a century, such a good year is only four years.
The 90's was the best drinking period for Lafite in '82 and the golden age of Hong Kong tablets. "The gambling god" in the brother said: "Give me a bottle of 82 years of Lafite."
Since then, Rafi has become a label of "gold-skimming" and excellent wines.
Imported wine hit, starting from The Lafite and other high-end goods. Four years after China's accession to the WTO, wine began to steal from China.
At first, it was mainly Bordeaux wines that entered China, as well as a small number of Burgundy, the Rhone Valley, the champagne region and the Italian wine. In February 2008, hong Kong's government imposed zero tariffs on wine, when imports soared by more than 80 per cent.
A large proportion of them are trans-shipment to the Mainland. With the warming of the famous wine market, famous wine into a speculation chip.
In 2008, the price of Lafite was only 130 euros per bottle, and a year later it was fired four times higher. June 2011 was the last carnival in the famous wine market.
7 article comes from the bursting of the bubble in the month of the good brewing network, and the composite index of the five major wineries plunged by a quarter. Eight rules introduced in 2012 hit the wine market even more hard.
Little Lafite's French shipment price has slipped from 410 euros in 2011 to 130 euros three years later. Imported wine merchants wail sorry, all kinds of famous wine prices cut, some still lying in the cellar.
At that time, the industry's largest business - Jianfa wine industry, also fell this time.
But growth in China's wine market has not stalled.
In 2011, Chinese drank 1.9 billion bottles of wine, making it the world's fifth-largest wine consumer and the fastest growing emerging market. Many importers find that foreign low-to-medium-low-end wines are cheap and of good quality, while Chinese are more aware of imports.
Thus, the low-end imported wine began to flood into.
In 2012, the number of wine importers in China surged from 800 a few years ago to more than 4,000. Previously, high-end imported wine and the public domestic wine to each other at ease.
But when imported low-cost wine appeared on supermarket shelves in large numbers, domestic wine had a big problem.
4, OEM
Previously, the main domestic wine 100 yuan and below, 50 yuan or less products the most competitive.
When imported wine is sent into the zone, the competition becomes fierce.
At present, the Mainstream of Australian Wine in 80-150 yuan, cheap only 5, 60 yuan, and Chile, Spain and other places wine procurement price is cheaper, cost-effective is also higher than domestic wine.
The bigger shock is bulk wine, also known as OEM wine. Importers can import cheap raw wine, bottled and then dominate the low-end market.
Can also be high-grade original wine packaging, to its own brand sales, so that consumers are priceless, to protect profit maximization.
And many domestic production enterprises also prefer to choose to import the original wine label sales, worry-free, profit margins are higher.
At the same time, tariff changes have made the advantage of imported wine even more significant.
In 2012, New Zealand was the first country to enjoy zero tariffs on Chinese wine imports;
In 2015, Chile was granted zero tariffs;
Georgia joins in 2018;
Australia joins in 2019.
It is reported that Moldova, known as the "European Vineyard", is expected to become the fifth country to enjoy zero tariffs on wine.
Domestic wine, no longer dangerous to keep.
In 2011, China's wine market, imported wine accounted for about 25% of the market share, domestic wine accounted for about 75%. In 2017, that proportion has reversed.
According to the China Wine Association, the proportion of chinese wine imports reached 79.27%, and the proportion was only 20.73%.
According to Chinese customs data, the amount and volume of wine imported from China increased by an average of about 12% annually between 2011 and 2017.
According to the 2017 China Wine Data Analysis Report, launched by the Wine Association and Yizhi Data, the total amount of imported wine has doubled in five years after 2013, accounting for more than 70% of online consumption. In the 2017 annual report of wine listed enterprises, Tonglu shares performed amazingly, achieving revenue of 920 million yuan, an increase of 54.80 percent year-on-year.
Set a new high since the listing of revenue, but also overtook Willon, among the top three in the industry. But embarrassingly, more than 90% of Tonglu's revenue, but from its liquor e-commerce.
In the previous three years, its wine industry accounted for 100%, 13.21% and 9.04% of its main wine revenue.
5, Breakout In 2018, the growth in imported wine slowed along with consumption. China's imports of wine fell 8.95 percent in 2018, according to customs data.
But there are more market participants.
Data show that the current wine importers have more than 6000. Maotai, Luzhou old cellar, Yanghe and other liquor brands, also gradually into the wine market.
A few years ago, the liquor giant was keen to buy winery, but now it wants to test the wine market in lighter models, such as co-operation.
Local wine companies, in an effort to break through. Zhang Yu launched the brand strategy of "Global layout of the second venture of Zhang Yu for a hundred years" and now has four overseas subsidiaries.
In the next few years, imported red wine will account for nearly 30 per cent of all business, Mr Zhang said. Great Wall Wine's brand-new brand positioning is "The Great Wall of China, Red National Wine." In the past two years, Great Wall wine has been reduced by 60% SKUs, hoping to gradually increase the average terminal price to more than 50 yuan.
At the same time, the Great Wall also continued to work hard in the brand, relying on its Sanggan, five-star, talent, Huaxia, coastal five core single products, the Great Wall wine out of the "famous" and "big brand" combined development path. Once a beautiful dynasty, will call 2018 its own institutional reform year, streamline the marketing team, cut hundreds of products. "Dynasty is the first generation of enterprises to lead the reform and opening up for 40 years, dynasty to bring the real sense of red wine into China, the future dynastic people to tell consumers what is good red wine.
Li Guangxuan, general manager of Dynasty, said.
New forces are also in the dark. Ningxia Helan Shandong Isling is recognized as one of the world's most suitable for wine grapes.
Last year, Helan Shandong Wine Industry Alliance was formally established, and Li Shixuan, General Manager of Great Wall Wine Industry, was appointed President of the Alliance.
Today, it represents a new reputation for home-grown wines.
Its wine grape cultivation area accounted for a quarter of the country, the fine winery more than one-third of the total national, more than 40 wineries more than 500 wines won in the international competition.
At last year's first China's own brand Expo, Ningxia Helan Shandong Wine and Guizhou Maotai Wine, Anxi Tieguanyin, etc. ranked among the top 100 regional brands of geographical indications products, the brand value ranked 14th.
China's consumption upgrade space is huge, wine consumption is far from saturated. In 2018, Beijing and Shanghai's GDP per capita exceeded US$20,000, ranking among advanced economies.
At the same time, the country's gdp per capita is $0.97 million, less than half of the first-tier cities. Meanwhile, according to the International Grape and Wine Organization, China's annual average annual consumption of wine was 1.24 liters, less than half the world average of 3.35 liters.
When per capita consumption reachs 3 liters, China will become the world's largest wine consumer.
Young people in China do like to drink wine.
Last year, more than 50 percent of 25-35-year-olds made wine their preferred choice for dinner, according to Ctrip Gourmet Forest, compared with nearly 70 percent of those aged 30-35. This shows that wine consumption is already a huge market and has huge market potential.
But in the face of such a large market, local enterprises, instead of moving forward, are reversing.
This must be a fundamental systemic problem, if not solved, in the face of increasingly powerful foreign-funded enterprises, local enterprises are afraid that the mosquito hit the glass - there is a bright, but no future.